Chapter two
What moves prices
Sort the influences by how fast they act and the argument mostly dissolves. Borrowing costs and credit conditions work within months, because the binding constraint for most buyers is a monthly payment rather than a purchase price: the same payment supports a different loan when the rate changes, and the amount people can bid moves without anyone earning more.
Incomes, the size of the stock and the rules governing where building may happen work over decades. They explain why one region is expensive and another is not, but they explain very little about this quarter. Expectations sit in between, genuinely self-reinforcing for a while and then bounded by what a lender will actually underwrite.